Tomorrow the World Cup gets underway on the other side of the border, over in South Africa. I should start by saying I am one of those charitable (also masochistic) souls who love to root for the underdog in international football. But football, being by-and-large a 'fair' sport, generally awards victory to the team of superior ability, pedigree and yes, money. So let's say I am bracing myself for the inevitable broken hopes that afflict me during these tournaments.
Above all my affinity is to the African nations. Traditionally, I spend the first half of the World Cup hoping that results go the way of the continental sides. Trouble is, by the time the second half comes around most of them have already been eliminated.
My analysis of how the African teams can progress into the knockout phase this time goes like this:
- Each team seems to have at least 2 tough opponents in its group. But if my team plays well, it can reasonably hope to sneak a draw against one of them (let's call that one the 'contender'), while losing to the other.
- It should also be able to defeat the weakest side in its group, thus gaining a grand total of 4 points. Is that enough to qualify? Yes, depending on results of matches between the other teams.
- To avoid giving myself a headache, I will only contemplate one possible combination of results. In this scenario:
- The dominant team of the group defeats all 3 opponents to end with 9 points.
- The African team with 4 points takes second place.
- Crucially, the contender can only muster a draw against the minnow of the group, and so jets home with just 2 points amid much moaning over referees, pitches, spectators, witchcraft, etc.
If this happy scenario were to play out in all 6 groups featuring African teams, the final groups standings may look like this:
| Group | Giant (9 pts) | African (4 pts) | Contender (2 pts) | Try again (1 pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | France | South Africa | Uruguay | Mexico |
| B | Argentina | Nigeria | Greece | South Korea |
| C | England | Algeria | United States | Slovenia |
| D | Germany | Ghana | Serbia | Australia |
| E | Holland | Cameroon | Denmark | Japan |
| G | Brazil | Ivory Coast | Portugal | North Korea |
To make it all come true I'll have to do some pretty bizarre and uncharacteristic things, like cheering for France, England and Germany, and hoping that South Korea don't beat Greece and that Mexico have a poor tournament.
But what if? In the round of 16, the African teams would end up facing winners of other groups. Of these, Nigeria vs France would seem to be the only winnable match-up. I hold very little hope for South Africa vs Argentina, Algeria vs Germany, Ghana vs England, Cameroon vs Italy or Ivory Coast vs Spain.
I do hope the African teams are going to spring some surprises (of the good kind!) in the days to come.
